THIS IS NOT A 2015 NFL MOCK DRAFT. Click the link to see my real 2015 NFL Mock Draft. This is a 2015 NFL Not Draft - a compilation of popular mock picks that, in my opinion, will not happen. For the record, I was wrong about zero "not" picks in my 2012 and 2013 Not Mocks (which means I was right about none of my projections not happening). My 2014 Not Mock was less successful, as I "hit" (a bad thing) two of the picks. I'll try to rebound in the 2015 edition.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
Ron Jaworski has declared that some of his sources - perhaps voices he hears while watching countless hours of film - have told him that Marcus Mariota will be chosen first overall. I'd say there's a 1 percent chance of that happening. I won't completely dismiss it because one of the owners may not like Jameis Winston's off-the-field history, but I can confidently say that as of right now, the Mariota rumors are smoke.
Tennessee Titans: Leonard Williams, DE/DT, USC
Many mocks have Leonard Williams going No. 2 overall - the percentage has dropped on our consensus picks page - but I can't see it happening. It doesn't make sense to me. Williams doesn't fill a need, and he's not the best player available. There is concern about his consistency, and multiple teams we've spoken to expect him to be chosen fourth or fifth overall. It's much more likely that Marcus Mariota will be selected with the second pick. It's just a matter of which team will be pulling the trigger.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
I've seen some mocks have Kevin White slotted this high, and I don't understand why (I'm a poet, and I didn't even... uhh... realize it.) I believe the Sun Tan Man himself slotted White here at some point. Georgio from the tanning salon apparently forgot to remind Todd McShay that the Jaguars spent a pair of second-day selections on receivers last year, and that they also have Justin Blackmon returning from suspension. Jacksonville is overly optimistic about Blackmon's chances of staying clean off the field, so I don't quite get why they'd pick a receiver at No. 3 overall, though David Caldwell has done some strange things.
Oakland Raiders: Dante Fowler, DE/OLB, Florida
I really didn't have a definitive pick for the Raiders, so I checked out the NFL Mock Draft Database for an idea. I noticed that some mocks had Dante Fowler there, so I'll use him. I don't think Fowler will make it to this spot, so that's my reasoning for it. That, and I figure Oakland either goes defensive tackle or wideout.
Washington Redskins: Brandon Scherff, OT/G, Iowa
Conversely, No. 5 is too high for a guard. Brandon Scherff is a very talented lineman, but I can't see him being chosen in the top five.
New York Jets: Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
Some mocks have Marcus Mariota simply dropping to the Jets. I don't understand this. There's such a hot market for Mariota that if the Titans don't draft him, some team will move up and snatch him. I can't see him falling to the Jets, and it sounds like New York likes Jameis Winston more anyway.
Chicago Bears: Danny Shelton, NT, Washington
I'll be bold here and pick Danny Shelton, the second-favorite pick in the Consensus NFL Draft Pick Report. I won't completely dismiss it, but I consider it unlikely for two reasons. First, Vic Fangio's defense never called for a dominant nose tackle in San Francisco. Second, I don't think Shelton is a good enough prospect to be chosen this high. No. 12 might be a solid spot for him, but No. 7 seems like a reach.
Atlanta Falcons: Shane Ray, DE/OLB, Missouri
The Falcons will probably take an edge rusher at No. 8, but it's probably not going to be Shane Ray. The Missouri defender just isn't a good fit for Atlanta's scheme, and he has struggled through a poor pre-draft process anyway. It wouldn't be shocking to see Ray fall out of the top 10.
New York Giants: Landon Collins, S, Alabama
The Giants have a big need at safety, so naturally, there have been some mock drafts slotting Landon Collins to them at No. 9. I find it difficult to envision Jerry Reese pulling the trigger on the Alabama defensive back. Collins was overhyped months ago, and his natural place is in the 15-25 range. He'd be a reach here, as there will be plenty of better prospects available.
St. Louis Rams: DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
The Rams want to upgrade the offensive line, but I have to believe that they'd select Amari Cooper or Kevin White in the event that either dropped to No. 10. DeVante Parker, on the other hand? I don't see it. It seems like St. Louis would rather take one of the top tackles over the third-ranked wideout.
Minnesota Vikings: Randy Gregory, DE/OLB, Nebraska
Randy Gregory is the third choice in the Consensus NFL Draft Pick Report, but that seems pretty redundant after the Anthony Barr selection last year. Besides, Gregory has off-the-field concerns that could scare the Vikings and other teams picking this high.
Cleveland Browns: Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
I don't get why Kevin White is the third-most-popular pick in the Consensus NFL Draft Pick Report. Unless he robs a bank or kidnaps an orphan in the next two weeks, he's not falling out of the top 10.
New Orleans Saints: Randy Gregory, DE/OLB, Nebraska
The Saints spent the entire offseason cleaning up their locker room, and now they're going to use their initial draft pick on a player with character concerns? I don't think that makes much sense. Gregory could certainly fall this spot, but like the preceding 12 teams, New Orleans may pass.
Miami Dolphins: Shaq Thompson, LB, Washington
I've seen one draft analyst comment on how Shaq Thompson would be a good fit for the Vikings at No. 11. By that thinking, Thompson would be a logical fit for the Dolphins at this juncture. However, every team we've spoken to views Thompson as a second-round prospect. Miami could pull the trigger on him in the second frame, but not here.
San Francisco 49ers: Eric Kendricks, ILB, UCLA
The 49ers lost Patrick Willis and Chris Borland this offseason, so the natural thing for them to do would be to select Eric Kendricks as a replacement. I can't see that happening because this would be a crazy reach. We've spoken to teams that draft well that believe Kendricks will be available at the end of the first round because of his size issues.
Houston Texans: DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
There's a good chance DeVante Parker will be chosen in the 11-15 range, but if some whacky trades happen, it's possible that he could somehow slip to this spot. If so, I expect the Texans to pass on him. He doesn't really fit Bill O'Brien's scheme, as he's not really what Houston wants in a receiver.
@jsemmens I've been to the Big Board in the past, but it's still an inefficient way of going about a mock. Not to mention, reports and the people writing them change, no? I come to Walt's site because I used to like his insight on every player. Now, it's simply team needs and a very limited amount of actual analysis. You definitely need SOME amount of explanation behind a pick with regards to team need, but you need much more of the player evaluation angle. Any dummy can write why a particular team "needs" a specific position; it takes a pretty good eye to understand what player needs to fill it. Again, just my 2 cents.
@dawg66 I see where you're coming from. I really do. But I'm sure as a Browns fan you can understand, they have needs EVERYWHERE. You aren't gonna win a super bowl unless you have a QB. Case in point pretty much every super bowl winning quarterback ever. Second, yes you have Terrelle Pryor and Corey Coleman. Terrelle Pryor is a slot receiver which is gonna get you nowhere unless you play for New England. Corey Coleman has yet to prove a damn thing. Mike Williams, however, just took down Alabama pretty much BY HIMSELF. It's the right range for him and I'm positive Huge Jackson wouldn't pass over him at this point, meaning pre-combine and interviews.
Here's my mock based on team need, prospect value and prevailing opinion as well as some ideas of my own. Please let me know about the team(s) that you follow more closely, and any picks that you agree or disagree with. Please comment, and feel free to rate.